This multidisciplinary team aimed at developing scenarios of future solar activity on multi-decadal time scales for making better projections of future climate change for the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)  climate model experiments, which will feed into the next assessment report of the IPCC.

This team has now terminated. After analysing the latest reconstructions of past solar activity, we built plausible scenarios of solar radiative and particle forcing. Our main deliverable is a data set with a series of realistic scenarios of the daily level of solar activity (irradiance and particle forcing) from 1850 till 2300. The data set is now available for download from the SOLARIS-HEPPA website:

These results have been submitted for publication in Geoscientific Model Development in 2016. Our forecasts reveal the existence of a Gleissberg-like solar minimum near 2070, with no definite scenario after that.

This team had 9 participants from the solar, space science, and climate communities, and met twice in 2015. Most of its members are also heavily involved in the SOLARIS-HEPPA, PAGES, CCMI and TOSCA initiatives.

The proposal is available for download.