This multidisciplinary team aimed at developing scenarios of future solar activity on multi-decadal time scales for making better projections of future climate change for the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate model experiments, which will feed into the next assessment report of the IPCC.
This team has now terminated. After analysing the latest reconstructions of past solar activity, we built plausible scenarios of solar radiative and particle forcing. Our main deliverable is a data set with a series of realistic scenarios of the daily level of solar activity (irradiance and particle forcing) from 1850 till 2300.
The data set is now available for download from the SOLARIS-HEPPA website: http://solarisheppa.geomar.de/cmip6
For a complete description, see K. Matthes, B. Funke, M. E. Andersson, et al., Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), Geoscientific Model Development, 10 (2017), pp. 2247–2302, https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/10/2247/2017/
Reconstruction of solar irradiance in the UV band (from 200 to 300 nm) using models and observations (after 1979). This spectral band is an important driver of stratospheric ozone. The graph shows: the observational composite from the FP7 SOLID project (with ± one standard deviation in grey), the composite produced by the ISSI team for the climate model intercomparison project, and two model reconstructions that were used for it. The absolute irradiances differ by a few percent; for easier visualisation, we adjusted all reconstructions to the observational one by adding a small offset.
This team had 9 participants from the solar, space science, and climate communities, and met twice in 2015. Most of its members are also heavily involved in the SOLARIS-HEPPA, PAGES, CCMI and TOSCA initiatives.
The proposal is available for download.