Game Changers Seminar

NASA interest in climate change goes back decades, and the now 50-year long record of remote sensing has provided clear evidence of ongoing change, as well as process-based information that inform the climate models that help us explain what is happening (and what will likely happen in the future). This talk reviews the highlights of NASA’s work in this area across multiple methods as well as some of the ongoing challenges.

Gavin A. Schmidt is the Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and was the acting Senior Climate Adviser to the NASA Administrator in 2021. He currently works on the simulation of climate in the past, present, and possible futures and has over 150 peer-reviewed publications. He was the author with Joshua Wolfe of “Climate Change: Picturing the Science” in 2009, and in 2011 was the inaugural recipient of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Climate Communication Prize. He is a fellow of the AGU and American Association for the Advancement of Science and his 2014 TED Talk on climate modeling has been viewed over a million times.

Webinar was recorded on April 27, 2023

In the blockbuster science fiction movie “Interstellar” (Warning: spoiler alert!), a team of intrepid astronauts set out to explore a system of planets orbiting a supermassive black hole named Gargantua, searching for a world that may be conducive to hosting human life. With Kip Thorne as science advisor, the film legitimately boasts a relatively high level of scientific accuracy, yet is still restricted by Hollywood sensitivities and limitations. In this talk, we will discuss a number of additional effects that may be important in determining the (un)inhabitable environment of a planet orbiting close to a giant, accreting black hole like Gargantua. In doing so, we hope to reach a greater understanding of the fascinating physics governing accretion, relativity, astrobiology, dark matter, and yes, even gravitational waves.

Jeremy D. Schnittman joined the Astrophysics Science Division at NASA Goddard in 2010 following postdoctoral fellowships at the University of Maryland and Johns Hopkins University. His research interests include theoretical and computational modeling of black hole accretion flows, X-ray polarimetry, black hole binaries, gravitational wave sources, gravitational microlensing, dark matter annihilation, planetary dynamics, resonance dynamics, and exoplanet atmospheres. He has been described as a “general-purpose astrophysics theorist”, which he regards as quite a compliment.

Webinar was recorded on March 30, 2023

Extreme geomagnetic storms can have significant impact on a wide range of technologies and a particular challenge is quantifying their occurrence likelihood since they are rare events. Geomagnetic storm occurrence varies with the solar cycle and each cycle has a unique amplitude and duration. Whilst there are comprehensive high fidelity space weather relevant observations over the last four to five solar cycles, observations that extend over multiple cycles are more limited. Nevertheless, historical ground magnetic observations over the last 150 years can be used to quantify space weather risk. They can be combined with the sunspot record to construct a uniform ‘clock’ for space weather activity which reveals a fast switch-on (and off) between the relatively quiet conditions around solar minima, and more active conditions around solar maxima. The clock provides a framework to predict the switch-on and off times, imperative since some of the most extreme events have occurred just after the switch-on.

Sandra Chapman is the 2023 ISSI Johannes Geiss Fellow. She is primarily but not exclusively a plasma physicist working on non-linear and complex systems in astrophysics and in the laboratory. She is Professor of Physics and founding Director of the Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics at the University of Warwick, UK and Adjunct Professor at the University of Tromso. She read Physics on an Exhibition Scholarship to Imperial College, London and her interest in nonlinear systems began with her PhD work (also Imperial College). Her early work was recognised with the COSPAR Zeldovich Medal (commission D) and the EGS Young Scientists’ Medal. Awards include the 2014 RAS James Dungey Lecture, the 2020 AGU Ed Lorenz Lecture, a 2021 Lloyd’s of London Science of Risk Prize, and the 2022 RAS Chapman Medal. Sandra was a 2017/18 Fulbright-Lloyd’s of London Scholar and a 2003/4 Fellow at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, Harvard.

Webinar was recorded on February 23, 2023

In the last few years machine learning techniques have proven capable of forecasting space weather events with a much higher accuracy with respect to long-used traditional empirical and physics-based models. Even though very few operational models are currently empowered by machine learning, it appears to be unavoidable that the community will embrace in the near future such powerful techniques. Indeed, it is hard to imagine the future of space weather without machine learning. Presently, we are moving one step further from the initial ‘early-adopter’ stage, where proof-of-principles models were elaborated and tested, and more consideration is being given to the issues of reliability, uncertainty, and trustworthiness of machine learning models, finding the right balance between physics priors and data-driven discovery. In this talk the speaker presents the state-of-the-art of machine learning applications for space weather problems and discusses a few challenges and opportunities that this field presents to us.

Enrico Camporeale graduated in space plasma physics from the Queen Mary University of London. He has worked at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Dutch National Center for Mathematics and Computer Science. He is currently a research associate with the University of Colorado Boulder and affiliated with the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, in Boulder, Colorado. His research activities focus on the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence to improve the forecasting capabilities of space weather models and on data-driven discovery of space physics. Enrico Camporeale is currently an associate editor for the Journal of Space Weather and Space climate and the president-elect of the Nonlinear Geophysics section of AGU.

Propagation parameters of electromagnetic waves such as amplitude, phase and polarization are impacted when traveling within the ionospheric plasma of the Earth. Related effects can be used on one hand to monitor and study the ionosphere by analysing the changes of measured propagation parameters. On the other hand, space weather impact on the ionosphere may cause unwanted distortions of signal detection in modern ground and space-based radio systems applied in telecommunication, positioning, navigation and remote sensing. After clarifying the main terms, the talk focuses on the discussion of space weather induced changes of the ionospheric plasma and associated impact on radio wave propagation used in diverse applications. Besides ionizing solar radiation and ionospheric plasma dynamics also solar radio bursts may seriously impact the functionality of radio systems via interference.

Norbert Jakowski received the diploma in physics in 1973 from the University of Rostock and was awarded a PhD in 1974 from the same university. Since 1974 he has been working in the Institute of Space Research, since 1991 in the German Aerospace Center (DLR) at their branch in Neustrelitz. His research activities include monitoring, modeling and predicting ionospheric processes related to space weather conditions and studying ionospheric impact on radio wave propagation through the ionosphere. He was/is involved in numerous national as well as ESA and European Commission funded projects related to ground and space based ionospheric monitoring and related research for correcting and mitigating space weather impact primarily in GNSS applications. He is author/co-author of more than 200 papers in refereed journals and books, associate editor of the Journal of Space Weather and Climate, and co-leads an International Space Weather Action Team (ISWAT) on ionospheric indices and scales.

Webinar was recorded on February 2, 2023

In the recent years, thanks to Solar System exploration, our knowledge on the interactions between a planetary body and its local space environment, where perturbations of solar or non-solar origin may occur, has been dramatically increased. Our understanding of the so called planetary space weather science is of paramount importance also for getting clues on similar –in their nature– phenomena that evolve in the circum-terrestrial environment, nevertheless, at different temporal and spatial scales. Moreover, determining the properties of radiation environments inside planetary magnetospheres is one of the key challenges of magnetospheric physics research. At the same time, it allows the design and manufacturing of satellites and payloads that are resistant to hazardous environments. In this talk, the speaker will discuss some examples of space weather science approaches, especially in the context of the Outer Solar System exploration. Moreover, the speaker will try to evidence the role of theoretical and/or data-driven modeling during preparation for upcoming exploration missions and discuss some future perspectives.

Christina Plainaki is a researcher of the Italian Space Agency (ASI) with activity in the fields of circumterrestrial and planetary Space Weather. Her research work is mainly focused on the modelling of the effects of radiation and plasma bombardment on moon icy surfaces, where phenomena such as sputtering and radiolysis generate tenuous atmospheres. She also studies the ion circulation in Ganymede’s mini-magnetosphere and its temporal and spatial variability in the context of planetary space weather. Her work is very relevant to the preparation for future missions in the outer Solar System, to the planning of observations and to the interpretation of both remote sensing and in situ data. She currently participates in different Solar System exploration missions such as the NASA Juno mission, the ESA JUICE mission, and the ESA/JAXA BepiColombo mission. She has written more than 100 scientific peer-reviewed papers (20 as a lead author) and has given numerous invited talks and seminars in international conferences as well as invited lectures in the context of PhD summer schools and courses.

Webinar was recorded on January 26, 2023

Satellites in low Earth orbit travel through the uppermost layer of the neutral atmosphere, where their movement is affected by variations in the density and wind. These variations affect the amount of fuel required by active satellites to fulfil their mission, as well as the duration that debris objects remain in space. The number of objects in low Earth orbit has been rapidly increasing. With it, concerns over the long-term sustainability of the use of this region of space have been on the rise as well. The trend in the number of objects is due to the ever increasing relevance of satellite missions to our society, combined with technological developments such as miniaturisation and the rise of mega-constellations. But also in-orbit breakups of rocket stages and satellites have been major contributors. In this talk, the speaker will provide an overview of the physics and technology related to this topic, as well as the ways in which international collaboration will be essential to provide solutions.

Eelco Doornbos is a space weather scientist at KNMI, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. He started his career as a researcher at Delft University of Technology, working on the modelling of satellite drag, applied in the precise orbit determination of oceanography satellites. For his PhD, he contributed to algorithms for creating data products on the density and wind in the upper atmosphere from measurements of the motion of satellites. This experience resulted in lead roles in thermosphere data processing projects for the ESA Earth Observation missions GOCE and Swarm. During the same period he also taught MSc level courses in orbital mechanics. In 2019, he moved to KNMI, where he is now working on space weather hazards in a much wider sense, among others by helping to establishing a knowledge center and alerting service for government and vital sectors in the Netherlands.

Webinar was recorded on January 19, 2023

The aurora borealis (to the north, and australis to the south of the Earth) are the most spectacular phenomena of a chain that connects the planet’s upper atmosphere to the solar activity. In this lecture, the speaker addresses the questions they raise: What solar origin ? What interaction between the solar wind and the space environment ? How are they formed? What are they witnessing? Do they exist elsewhere than on Earth? What research is still being done on auroras?

Jean Lilensten is currently senior researcher at the Institut de Planétologie et d’Astrophysique de Grenoble, France. At the beginning of the 90s, the scientific community working on the solar terrestrial relationships, had a relatively circumscribed field of research. Two major evolutions have marked it considerably. The first is space weather which aims at extending the scientific knowledge in order to be able to quantify the solar activity and its impacts on our societies. The second is comparative planetology. In the recent years, these currents seem to join together to form a “planetary space weather”. Jean Lilensten developed his research in both branches, addressing the impact of solar activity on different planets (Earth, Mars, Venus, Jupiter, Saturn). Amongst his most recent discoveries are the existence of blue auroras at Mars, and the polarisation of the auroral and nightglow emission at Earth. He published 15 books ranging from space weather to epistemology.

Webinar was recorded on January 12, 2023

Space weather has affected aviation in many ways; effects include short-wave radio disturbance, single-event effects leading to upsets in electronics, Satellite Navigation systems disturbance via scintillation,  solar radio burst effects on secondary surveillance radar, increased radiation dose at flight altitudes. In November 2018, a long process involving experts from many countries of the world came to a conclusion when the ICAO Air Navigation Commission and the Council of ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization, approved and published provisions in ICAO Annex 3 and guidance material on Space Weather in ICAO Document 10100. The advisories intend to provide the most up to date information on space weather impacts on aviation. The introduction of space weather in the ICAO framework has been a great achievement. What is still outstanding is the development of procedures that are globally standardized on the application of the advisories, as well as the provision of adequate space weather knowledge to pilots, controllers and other aviation personnel. Recent events are used to illustrate this. The talk will be about space weather for aviation: what´s been achieved – and what needs more work. 

Klaus Sievers flew commercial aircraft for Lufthansa, starting in 1979; then from 1987 to 2016 on the Boeing 747. He became interested in weather, promoting and working to get NCAR convective and cloud-height products onto eFB – via satellite. Other waystations on the journey into “weather” included drafting the “Pilots´ Vision on Weather” for the European Cockpit Association and work on the EASA initiative “Weather information to pilots”. Klaus Sievers represented IFALPA at the ICAO Met Panel from its beginning in 2015, specializing in volcanic ash , sulphur dioxide clouds and space weather.

Webinar was recorded on December 15, 2022

Human activities have become a dominant force of terrestrial transformations, inducing a clearly observable change of the climate, ubiquitous pollutions of air, soil and water, and an unprecedented decrease of the living. Faced with this situation, the assessment of the environmental footprint of human activities becomes a key instrument to inform sustainability action plans and roadmaps. In this webinar the speaker summarises the current knowledge on the environmental footprint of Space Sciences, explaining its origins and impacts. A particular focus will be placed on the carbon footprint of astronomical research, for which detailed estimates are becoming available. Forecasts for the evolution of the field will be discussed and confronted with the imperative to drastically reduce green house gas emissions over the coming decades. The speaker demonstrates that profound changes are required for making Space Sciences environmentally sustainable.

Jürgen Knödlseder graduated at the Technical University of Munich and the Max-Planck Institute for extraterrestrial physics (MPE) in Garching, Germany. He moved to the Institute of Astrophysics (IAP) in Paris and subsequently to the Institute for Astrophysics and Planetology (IRAP) in Toulouse, France where he became in 2001 a staff scientist of the National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS). Jürgen Knödlseder is working on instrumentation and observations in the field of gamma-ray astronomy, initially using the COMPTEL telescope aboard the CGRO satellite and the SPI telescope aboard the INTEGRAL satellite on the topics of nucleosynthesis and antimatter. More recently he focused on the topic of cosmic rays, working on observations of the Fermi satellite and on the development of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). He is member of the astrophysics advisory board of the French Space Agency CNES, and he was chairing for nine years the Consortium Board of CTA. Since 2022 Jürgen Knödlseder is head of the office for environmental footprint reduction of the CTA Observatory.

Webinar was recorded on December 8, 2022